How the National Media Messed Up the Mavs Predictions
by Bob McCullough 6/14/24
Go into the recent archives of any major sports site, and you'll find a lot of names who should be embarrassed about their predictions for the Mavs-Celtics series. And they're not just the names of those who happened to cover the Mavs.
The prediction split was close to 50/50. Maybe 60/40 in favor of the C's, which felt reasonable going into the Finals. Now it seems a little ridiculous.
So what went wrong? Let's take a closer look at why the national media especially fell for the Dallas storyline, for it embodies a lot of what's wrong with sportswriting today and NBA coverage in particular.
**** Mavs Story Lines
This one's at the top of the list. Writers love superstars, and the NBA's entire culture is built around them. The old ebony/ivory combination of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic was irresistable as a result, especially given the story lines.
Start with Irving, a fascinating wack job who's been shooting his career in the foot for a long time now. After getting in trouble for spewing anti-Semitic nonsense, breaking up teams, getting coaches fired and conveniently missing games due to his anti-vax rhetoric, Irving somehow managed to resurrect his career and transform himself into a supposedly responsible NBA elder in Dallas. It's the ultimate redemption storyline.
If you really believe that I have deeds to several bridges I can sell you, but in a basketball context Doncic may be even worse, which hardly seems possible. He's the most offensively gifted player of his generation, and yet, to use the words of Bob Cousy, he "looks like a truck driver."
Which is Cooz-speak for Luka being fat and out of shape, especially for a professional athlete, and the Celtics have relentlessly exploited that flaw. Add in the fact that he goes after the refs on EVERY play, and he's pretty sickening to watch, even with his incredibly skill set. That doesn't stop the writers from relentlessly loving the highlight plays; that's what they do.
J's Fatigue
This one's right up there, too. NBA writers especially are sick of writing the same old rivalry stories about Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown, i.e., who's better, who gets paid more, who cares more about winning vs endorsements and brand, and so on.
Not surprisingly, the rest of us are just as sick of reading them. Even more so now that' they've become largely irrelevant. Whatever their differences were--and there likely were differences, rest assured--they've worked them out to get to within a game of their first title.
** hum.
What Matters About the Mavs Previous Opponents
This one hasn't been explored as much, but it's relevant. National writers especially saw three glamour teams in the Clippers, the Thunder and the Wolves, which wasn't exactly the case.
Start with the Clippers. They were always a shell of a team with lots of older star power--Kahwi, Paul George, the artist formerly known as Westbrick. Without a healthy Leonard, however, that formula was yesterday's news, as the Mavs quickly proved. Simply put, it was a hidden mismatch.
On to the Thunder. This one's slightly more interesting. OKC surprised everyone with a first-round sweep over a New Orleans shell team supposedly "led" by the ever injured and absent Zion Williamson, which led to the assumption that they were ahead of the curve when it came to being playoff ready.
Dallas exposed them as a bit of a donut team without enough secondary scoring after SGA, giving Sam Presti a solid blueprint for what he needs to fix going forward. The Thunder are one of the few teams where "watch out for them next year" carries a lot of weight.
Lastly, the Timberwolves, who have one of the most oddly mismatched rosters in recent memory. They were perfectly constructed to stop the Nuggets, however, with two seven-footers available to get Nicola Jokic off his game. Against the Mavs, though, young Anthony Edwards was exposed as far from Finals-ready, and KAT came off once again as a seven foot scorer who sometimes plays at 6'6" under pressure.
What Now For the Mavs?
This one's simple, at least on paper--get Luka in shape, and convince him to play a nominal amount of defense. According to reports, though, Dallas has been trying to get him to do this for years, so that's where the "on paper" part comes in.
They also need him to grow up. Luka's referee theater routine grew thin when he was exposed to a team with two All-Defense defenders, and at least two more who should be considered for that roster. Whining about fouls is fine when you have inferior defenders, but it doesn't hold water when athletes like Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday are in your grill taking options away.
Finally, the Mavs need a third scorer. Badly. They got by with guys like PJ Washington and Derrick Jones this year, but bargain basement options like that almost always wilt like March daffodils when the playoffs roll around in April, May and June. The future's still bright in Cuban Land, but it's going to take some serious attitude and personnel adjustments to get Luka, Kyrie and company over the top.
<br />
<br />
How the National Media Messed Up the Mavs Predictions<br />
by Bob McCullough 6/14/24<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Go into the recent archives of any major sports site, and you'll find a lot of names who should be embarrassed about their predictions for the Mavs-Celtics series. And they're not just the names of those who happened to cover the Mavs. <br />
<br />
<br />
The prediction split was close to 50/50. Maybe 60/40 in favor of the C's, which felt reasonable going into the Finals. Now it seems a little ridiculous. <br />
<br />
<br />
So what went wrong? Let's take a closer look at why the national media especially fell for the Dallas storyline, for it embodies a lot of what's wrong with sportswriting today and NBA coverage in particular. <br />
<br />
<br />
**** Mavs Story Lines<br />
<br />
<br />
This one's at the top of the list. Writers love superstars, and the NBA's entire culture is built around them. The old ebony/ivory combination of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic was irresistable as a result, especially given the story lines. <br />
<br />
<br />
Start with Irving, a fascinating wack job who's been shooting his career in the foot for a long time now. After getting in trouble for spewing anti-Semitic nonsense, breaking up teams, getting coaches fired and conveniently missing games due to his anti-vax rhetoric, Irving somehow managed to resurrect his career and transform himself into a supposedly responsible NBA elder in Dallas. It's the ultimate redemption storyline. <br />
<br />
<br />
If you really believe that I have deeds to several bridges I can sell you, but in a basketball context Doncic may be even worse, which hardly seems possible. He's the most offensively gifted player of his generation, and yet, to use the words of Bob Cousy, he "looks like a truck driver." <br />
<br />
<br />
Which is Cooz-speak for Luka being fat and out of shape, especially for a professional athlete, and the Celtics have relentlessly exploited that flaw. Add in the fact that he goes after the refs on EVERY play, and he's pretty sickening to watch, even with his incredibly skill set. That doesn't stop the writers from relentlessly loving the highlight plays; that's what they do. <br />
<br />
<br />
J's Fatigue<br />
<br />
<br />
This one's right up there, too. NBA writers especially are sick of writing the same old rivalry stories about Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown, i.e., who's better, who gets paid more, who cares more about winning vs endorsements and brand, and so on. <br />
<br />
<br />
Not surprisingly, the rest of us are just as sick of reading them. Even more so now that' they've become largely irrelevant. Whatever their differences were--and there likely were differences, rest assured--they've worked them out to get to within a game of their first title. <br />
<br />
<br />
** hum. <br />
<br />
<br />
What Matters About the Mavs Previous Opponents<br />
<br />
<br />
This one hasn't been explored as much, but it's relevant. National writers especially saw three glamour teams in the Clippers, the Thunder and the Wolves, which wasn't exactly the case. <br />
<br />
<br />
Start with the Clippers. They were always a shell of a team with lots of older star power--Kahwi, Paul George, the artist formerly known as Westbrick. Without a healthy Leonard, however, that formula was yesterday's news, as the Mavs quickly proved. Simply put, it was a hidden mismatch. <br />
<br />
<br />
On to the Thunder. This one's slightly more interesting. OKC surprised everyone with a first-round sweep over a New Orleans shell team supposedly "led" by the ever injured and absent Zion Williamson, which led to the assumption that they were ahead of the curve when it came to being playoff ready. <br />
<br />
<br />
Dallas exposed them as a bit of a donut team without enough secondary scoring after SGA, giving Sam Presti a solid blueprint for what he needs to fix going forward. The Thunder are one of the few teams where "watch out for them next year" carries a lot of weight. <br />
<br />
<br />
Lastly, the Timberwolves, who have one of the most oddly mismatched rosters in recent memory. They were perfectly constructed to stop the Nuggets, however, with two seven-footers available to get Nicola Jokic off his game. Against the Mavs, though, young Anthony Edwards was exposed as far from Finals-ready, and KAT came off once again as a seven foot scorer who sometimes plays at 6'6" under pressure. <br />
<br />
<br />
What Now For the Mavs? <br />
<br />
<br />
This one's simple, at least on paper--get Luka in shape, and convince him to play a nominal amount of defense. According to reports, though, Dallas has been trying to get him to do this for years, so that's where the "on paper" part comes in. <br />
<br />
<br />
They also need him to grow up. Luka's referee theater routine grew thin when he was exposed to a team with two All-Defense defenders, and at least two more who should be considered for that roster. Whining about fouls is fine when you have inferior defenders, but it doesn't hold water when athletes like Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday are in your grill taking options away. <br />
<br />
<br />
Finally, the Mavs need a third scorer. Badly. They got by with guys like PJ Washington and Derrick Jones this year, but bargain basement options like that almost always wilt like March daffodils when the playoffs roll around in April, May and June. The future's still bright in Cuban Land, but it's going to take some serious attitude and personnel adjustments to get Luka, Kyrie and company over the top.
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